Trends in Print and Mail

Without an accompanying press release, Federal Register notice or advisory, the United States Postal Service (“USPS”) released the new postal rates on the “Postal Explorer” page of their website. On the left hand navigation bar of the page, users can download the rates in either Excel or .CSV format. Also, the new postage statement forms have been posted.

The new rates are consistent with the December 24, 2013 decision of the Postal Regulatory Commission (“PRC”) to conditionally approve the USPS request for an exigent rate case. Under the decision, the USPS will be able to raise rates by approximately 6%, and maintain those rates until they recoup the calculated $2.8 billion loss due to the “Great Recession” of 2009.

For almost 2 weeks, the mailing community has been waiting for some type of decision by the USPS. Through the Postal Customer Councils, the USPS released a statement that they were disappointed in the PRC decision, and were going to take time to analyze the new rates. However, there was no follow-up communication.

Under the new rates, the greatest impact will be on mailers who meet don’t presort their mail to the higher levels. As the table below shows, First Class Mail single piece rates will increase by 6.52%, and mixed AADC rates by 7.41%. On the other hand, AADC/3-Digit rates will only increase by 5.73% and 5-Digit rates by 5.83%. This means that the savings for AADC/3-Digit presort improves to $0.084 per piece, and 5-Digit to $0.109 per piece.

On Tuesday, December 24, the Postal Regulatory Commission (“PRC”) conditionally approved the US Postal Service’s request for an exigent rate increase. This means that on January 26, 2014, postage rates will increase an average of 6.0%.

According to current laws, the US Postal Service (“USPS”) may increase postage prices at the rate of inflation as determined by the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”). If there are “exceptional or extraordinary” circumstances, the USPS may request and additional, or exigent, rate increase. The USPS filed such a request in 2010, citing the impact great recession of 2009 on mail volumes. The PRC rejected the request. The USPS filed an appeal in court, which directed the request back to the PRC. There was no action by either party at that time.

On September 26, 2013, the USPS re-filed the 2010 exigent rate request, while also filing for the CPI increase. 

In this latest decision, the PRC found that the Postal Service experienced financial harm as a result of the recession and is legally entitled to implement price increases in excess of the CPI cap. In an unexpected move, the PRC denied the Postal Service’s request to make the increases permanent. It found allowing the increases to remain in effect indefinitely would be inconsistent with fundamental postal policies underlying the price cap.

In brief, the PRC determined that the USPS didn’t adequately break out losses due to electronic diversion from the losses due to the recession. The PRC analysis determined that the recession caused the loss of 25.3 billion pieces with a value of $2.8 billion. The exigent rate increase will stay in effect until the USPS recovers the $2.8 billion, with the additional requirement of reporting quarterly on revenues generated by the rate increase.

This decision will be greeted with dismay by most mailers. After the November PRC ruling that the USPS couldn’t implement Full Service IMb requirements concurrently with the proposed increased rates, it looked like the PRC would also deny the exigent rate increase. Major mailers and mailing associations will probably use the decision to put more pressure on Congress for postal reform legislation.

Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) is the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, which has authority over the USPS. He recently stated that he expects postal legislation to be approved in January by his committee – with bipartisan support. However, the bill is very different than the proposed House legislation. Also, there’s significant opposition by members of both parties who don’t want to see cuts in service to their constituents.

It will be an interesting 2014.

On November 21, 2013, I gave a presentation of Full Service Intelligent Mail Barcode (IMb) to the Postal Customer Council of Lincoln, NE. I was asked if there was any possibility the USPS would delay the requirement that all mail presented at a discounted postage rate have a Full Service IMb by January 26, 2014. I said, "Probably not. The US Postal Service (USPS) has not shown any indication they will delay the date." That same afternoon, the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) ruled against the January date.

On September 30, 2013, the US Postal Services (USPS) filed their annual request for a rate increase. Also, they refiled a 2010 request for an exigent rate increase higher than the rate of inflation. That means on January 26, 2014, postage rates may go up by 6%.

Contrary to rumor, this doesn't mean the end of print and mail as we know it.